An unexpectedly sturdy world economy is likely to shrug off President Donald Trump’s protectionist trade policies this year, thanks partly to a surge of investment in artificial intelligence in North America and Asia,

Before returning to that question, let us look at where the economy has been and might go in the near future. The World Bank’s new Global Economic Prospects provides a clarifying view of the recent past.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Tuesday he expected first quarter GDP growth in the United States would exceed 5% in the first quarter of 2026, adding that its interest rates were too high and were holding back stronger growth.

Global growth is projected to stay resilient at 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, broadly matching the estimated 3.3% outturn in 2025, according to the l.

The global economy was set to grow more rapidly than previously expected, but is nonetheless on course for its weakest decade in half a century, according to the bank’s economists.

The global economy is proving more resilient than expected, with 2026 GDP growth expected to improve slightly over forecasts from last June, the World Bank said on Tuesday while warning that growth is too concentrated in advanced countries and overall too weak to reduce extreme poverty.

China clocked its lowest birth rate on record in 2025 as its population shrank for the fourth year in a row, deepening a demographic challenge that could drag on the world’s second-largest economy for decades to come.

The Bank sees the Indian government continuing to improve its finances, with the impact of recent tax cuts outweighed by a decline in spending.